The Crossroads of Change: San Francisco's Mayoral Race and the Future of Democratic Politics

The three primary candidates (District 11 Supervisor Ahsha Safaí, incumbent San Francisco Mayor London Breed, and philanthropist Daniel Lurie; from left to right) in the Democratic camp for the San Francisco mayoral election on Nov. 5, each representing a part of the Democratic ideology that could very well determine the future of the party throughout the country – Juliana Yamada/The San Francisco Chronicle; Gabrielle Lurie / The San Francisco Chronicle via Getty Images; Lea Suzuki/The San Francisco Chronicle via Getty Images

As the 2024 election cycle in the United States begins, multiple races have, if not more, as much national and international implications as the seemingly inevitable presidential rematch from 2020 between incumbent President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.

One of the most notable and highly impactful events that will be interesting to follow is the San Francisco mayoral elections, which will take place on the same day as the presidential election on Nov. 5.

Incumbent San Francisco Mayor London Breed will not only attempt to be re-elected to an unprecedented third term but will additionally do it against serious odds and deep frustration with her effectiveness despite primarily positive results – Anadolu Agency/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Incumbent San Francisco Mayor London Breed will have an admittedly tough road to climb as she seeks her third consecutive election win amidst controversy and an increasing lack of popularity over critical issues in San Francisco, including rising crime rates, homelessness, and growing concerns about public safety.

"People are looking for new leadership," said San Francisco District 11 Supervisor and 2024 mayoral candidate Ahsha Safaí in an exclusive interview Wednesday, "and many of the things that she's done have gotten us where we are today with regard to the crime, homelessness, cleanliness of the streets because we're a strong executive city."

The events during her tenure, including numbers steadily rising back to their pre-COVID rates and the recall of former District Attorney Chesa Boudin in 2022 due to his infamous progressive "soft on crime" attitude, do not necessarily help Breed, who, according to a May 2023 memo published by Probolsky Research, has a 60 percent disapproval rate from San Francisco voters.

Additionally, 53 percent of eligible San Francisco voters stated that Breed does not deserve re-election, mainly due to what has felt like stagnant progress despite a large amount of money and resources put into solving the homelessness crisis.

"When you look at our homeless issue, we've spent in the last seven years $2,800,000," said former San Francisco Mayor Frank Jordan in an interview with the California Insider on Aug. 22, "Now that's in seven years, and we're averaging $700 million a year, just on homeless, but if you break that down, no one seems to know if that's 7,000 homeless or is 17,000 homeless."

According to data from the City of San Francisco government, between 2017 and 2022, the number of total homeless rose by over 13 percent, with the number of unsheltered homeless individuals, who make up the majority, increasing by 1 percent.

However, despite a seemingly increasing amount of crime throughout the city and constant media coverage that, amongst many things, labeled San Francisco as "a hub for homeless encampments and surging crime," data from the San Francisco Police Department (SFPD) shows that, as far as crime is concerned, the amount in 2023 was the lowest since the city reopened after the COVID-19 pandemic, with crime overall dropping by 13 percent since 2019.

"This feeling of uneasiness does not square with crime," Bay Area columnist Joe Eskenazi said in an interview with CNN, "If you take a step back, statistically, that's the case. San Francisco has lots of overt misery, lots of overt drug use, lots of things that you wish you didn't see and that the city should be dealing with in ways other than tossing people in jail or pushing them into neighboring counties. San Francisco also has lots of property crime because there's a great divergence of wealth and people steal things. But San Francisco's violent crime rate is at a near historic low right now."

While crime seemingly is on the rise, in reality, Breed fulfilled her most prominent campaign promise within her two terms in office: an attempt to clean up San Francisco and reduce crime.

In working to provide comprehensive coverage of the San Francisco mayoral race, multiple invitations were extended to Breed's office for comment and perspective. Despite these attempts, there was a conspicuous absence of engagement.

Despite San Francisco holding a ranked-choice voting system for mayor in which candidates of the same party can run against each other, there is little expectation for a Republican to replace Breed, as no member of the Party has held the position since former Mayor George Christopher left office in 1964.

Additionally, despite Breed's high chances of being voted out of office in November, relatively little attention has been brought in the national media towards her two most prominent challengers in the Democratic camp: San Francisco District 11 Supervisor Ahsha Safaí and philanthropist Daniel Lurie.

Tipping Point Community founder, former CEO, and chairman Daniel Lurie is trying to balance his everyman image with the stark reality of his being involved in the legendary Levi Strauss fortune, all while trying to distinguish himself from his unpopular incumbent opponent – Lea Suzuki/The San Francisco Chronicle via Getty Images

Lurie emerges as a noteworthy candidate, not just for his policies but also for his notable connections. Lurie's ties to the city's financial elite are highlighted by his family's link to the Levi Strauss fortune, particularly his mother's substantial stake estimated at approximately $570 million.

Heading The Tipping Point Community, a prominent anti-poverty organization, Lurie's board includes influential personalities like First Republic Bank's Katherine August-Dewilde and football icon Ronnie Lott. Significantly, the board's emeritus member, Katie Schwab Paige, represents a connection to the distinguished Schwab family. Lurie's blend of wealth, philanthropy, and high-profile associations places him in a unique spotlight, garnering both interest and critical analysis from voters.

Despite his established financial and political connections, Lurie has tried hard to establish an everyman, reachable persona. His campaign website opens, "Daniel's story is firmly rooted in San Francisco — dinners with Dad at The Blue Light, burritos at Gordo's, 49ers and Giants games at Candlestick Park. If you've ever met Daniel, chances are you already know how much he loves his hometown."

Additionally, Lurie believes that a change in leadership and policy is wholly necessary to address San Francisco's most pressing issues, stating through his website: "San Franciscans are working harder every day to move our city forward but the entrenched status quo at City Hall is failing them. We cannot solve San Francisco's most difficult problems if we are unwilling or unable to challenge the system that has allowed them to fester. It's time for a new era of leadership." 

However, Breed and Lurie tend to align on many key policies, with the two actively working together to fundraise Proposition E, which would streamline administrative processes for the San Francisco Police Department, thus enhancing officers' operational efficiency.

This Proposition aims to simplify reporting and record-keeping, reduce bureaucratic obstacles, and enable the use of advanced technologies such as body cameras and drones, facilitating more efficient law enforcement activities, especially in high-profile cases.

However, the fundraising of said Proposition does tip Lurie's hand regarding his approach and reveals aspects of his tenure at Tipping Point Community. Although aligning with Breed's policies, Lurie suggests he can implement them more effectively, leveraging his financial networks. This is evident from his substantial fundraising for Proposition E, outdoing even Breed's efforts by over $76,000.

In addition to challenges with their homelessness initiatives, The Tipping Point Community, led by Lurie, exhibits a notable financial dynamic. Despite efforts to raise significant funds to address homelessness, the organization has faced hurdles in making impactful changes. Homelessness numbers in San Francisco, a primary focus of their mission, have continued to rise, indicating a complex issue yet to be effectively tackled. Alongside this, the organization's board, made up of influential figures, is marked by substantial philanthropic contributions.

These contributions, ranging from thousands to over a million dollars, underscore the connection between the organization and San Francisco's affluent and influential circles.

Like Breed's office, this reporter contacted Tipping Point Community and Lurie for comment and to ask clarifying questions. However, despite multiple invitations and requests, there was a conspicuous absence of engagement.

District 11 Supervisor Ahsha Safaí, who will attempt to make history as San Francisco’s first Iranian-born mayor, understands that, in order to gain the support of the entire spectrum of San Francisco voters, he has to balance moderate with progressive views and find ways to make it work and practical – Gabrielle Lurie / The San Francisco Chronicle via Getty Images

Finally, there is the candidacy of District 11 Supervisor Ahsha Safaí, who, if victorious, would become the first Iranian-born mayor of San Francisco and the only active Iranian-born mayor in the United States, a responsibility Safaí is ready to undertake and would be proud to accomplish, fully comprehending the potential media distractions of the appointment.

 "I mean, listen, if, if there is a negative portrayal, we're just gonna continue to talk about all the positive things and how immigrants have always been a part of San Francisco's history, whether it was the Irish, or Chinese, or Latinos, or even African Americans migrating from other parts of the United States, the deep south, to come here," Safaí said in an exclusive interview Wednesday.

 Additionally, Safaí, whose supervisory district often ranks as some of the safest neighborhoods in San Francisco, differs from his opponents, blending moderate and progressive approaches to the mayorship.

 Supervisor Safaí has proposed a plan to address public safety by advocating for an increase in the city's police force. He highlights a significant reduction in officer numbers during Breed's term and suggests a charter amendment to establish a higher minimum requirement. While acknowledging the city's financial deficit, he emphasizes the need for a responsible approach to funding this initiative in future discussions.

 "We need a thoughtful approach to increase our police officers," Safaí said, "we've gone from 1,950 to 1,550 under Mayor Breed. An analysis suggests we need 2,100. We're planning to raise this minimum in the city charter without impacting current funding, as we're facing a large deficit."

 Another concern of constituents is the quality and cost of living in San Francisco, with apartments becoming increasingly unaffordable despite recent reports that 12.7 percent of the total homes are empty.

 "I'm kind of thinking about affordable housing in a more broader definition. In years past, the private market always took, uh, took care of those working families, teachers, nurses, firefighters, paramedics, janitors; a lot of those families can no longer afford to live in San Francisco unless they have a home or property that's handed to them from other family members," Safaí said, "so we want to think about expanding that definition, and so I've been one of the loudest voices about expanding and promoting more housing development, but also including and expanding the definition of what's affordable and who it's affordable for."

 Additionally, Safaí addressed the need to revamp Market Street as major businesses and sources of income have left amidst fears of rising crime, homelessness, and lack of activity due to instability.

 "One of my proposals is to create a special use education district. And this isn't just about writing a letter to one institution, this is about creating a, um, a platform and the table for multiple universities to come and locate in our city and take up some of the available 40 million square feet of empty office space that can be repurposed and reprogrammed for educational space, educational living space, educational research space," Safaí said.

 Safaí remarked that the one aspect of this election that makes him stand apart as a candidate was his wealth of political experience and deep qualifications, working closely with previous Mayors Willie Brown and now-Governor Gavin Newsom, being a small business owner, and a labor organizer before joining the Supervisors Board seven years ago.

 "I put that experience up to any person that gets into the race," Safaí said.

As the eyes of the world linger on the more high-profile and national races, the three-way dance for San Francisco's top decision-maker becomes a model for how Democratic policy will look and how other major cities across the nation may progress as they deal with identical issues. In the end, Breed will attempt to do what no other mayor has achieved in being re-elected to an unprecedented third term, but with her back against the wall and the people calling for a change, there is a strong possibility that what will happen in San Francisco may signal a radical shift in not just the city, but ultimately, in all of American politics.